Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Triangle Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wrighrt State and author ofthe report, said unemploymengt increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirsd quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitahn Statistical Area, which includes Greene, Miami and Prebl e counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,00 jobs in the third That would drop employment to downfrom 380,400 in the first quarterr of the year, a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has long relierd on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynorr said.
Forecasts from the report show employmengt in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the firsg quarter of this year to 36,100 by the third quarter, a nearly 15 percentf drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hitin particular, Trayno r said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the thirdr quarter, down from 40,000 in the firstr quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Servics employment, which includes financial service, business service, utilitiesx and leisure service, is projected to decreass to 324,200 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the firsr quarter, a nearly 1 percent decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanf time forthe region,” Traynor Construction employment is expected to rise as a part of seasonap employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsg quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewerf than the same time period last One area of employment that isn’t expectedf to be hit hard is healt care.
In fact, Traynor said he expectds health care to add some jobs by thethirr quarter, going up to 56,50p from 56,300 in the first quarter. He said the rate of declinr in gross domestic productwill slow, but remainj negative through the third quarter and maybew into the fourth quarter of this year. Even when GDP does become positive again, it will take some time for employmenft to pick up because it is a lagging indicatorr ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said there is a greatf deal of uncertainty still on the national as businesses try to determine the impac ofgovernment actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemploymenft is not going awayanytimer soon.
“This is something we’re going to be livingg with for quitea while, well into next he said.