Global airlines to lose $9B in 2009 - Sacramento Business Journal:

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The ’s (IATA) new forecas t is staggeringly worse thanits $4.7 billion collective loss forecast made just three months ago. The air carrier trade group also downgraded its loss estimatwe for 2008to $10.4 billion from $8.5 billion. “There is no modernb precedent for today’s economicd meltdown,” IATA director general and chief executivew officer Giovanni Bisignani said in anews “The ground has shifted. Our industry has been shaken. This is the most difficult situation that the industrthas faced.” After the 11, 2001, terror attacks on the United States, industrhy revenues fell by 7 percent, Bisignani and took three years to rebound to pre-9/1 levels.
Revenues will fall to $448 billiob in 2009 from $528 billiom in 2008 (15 percent), IATA Passenger yields will dip7 percent. “This time we face a 15 percent drop—a loss of revenues of $80 billion—inn the middle of a global Bisignani saidduring IATA’ss annual industry summit. “Our future depends on a drastixc reshapingby partners, governments and industry. We cannoy bear the cost of government micro-regulation, crazy taxation and partners abusing theitmonopoly power.
” North American carriersa will generally fair better than foreign carriers, IATA and should narrow their losses for the North American airlines will lose $1 billion in dramatically less than the $5.1 billio n lost in 2008, as out-of-the-money fuel hedges lapse and capacity cuts kick in to right capacity with demand. IATA said North American carriers would turn a modesg profit forthe year. Asia-Pacificx and European carriers are likely to take thebiggesgt hits, losing $3.3 billion and $1.8 billion, Another heavily impacted sector, air cargo, will decline by 17 percent basedf on tons shipped.
Cargo yields will decline 11 Relaxed fuel prices over the first five monthsa of 2009 havehelped carriers, but prices have begun to climh in recent weeks. IATA projects the industry fuel bill to fallfrom $165 billionj in 2008 to $59 billion in 2009, on a $56 per barrelk average price of oil. “The risk that we have seen in recent weeks is that even the slightest glimmer of economic hope sends oilpricesz higher,” Bisignani said. "Greedy speculation must not hold the globakleconomy hostage. Failure to act by governments wouldbe Globally, airlines are in a bettef cash position, with more liquidituy than in past downturns.
But, Bisignani warned “a long L-shaped recover y could drain the industry of Bisignani notedindustry consolidation, such as the mergerr between Atlanta-based (NYSE: DAL) and , that have made some playerz stronger. But he railed against what he called “archaic limitation s on ownership” that prevent the mergin g of carriers fromdifferent